重磅!美加息若何影响你我荷包?16位专家这么说

重磅!美加息如何影响你我钱袋?16位专家这么说

2017-03-1712:37:03来源:光明网作者:${中新记者姓名}责任编辑:王诗尧2017年03月17日12:37 来源:光明网参与互动 

  光明网3月16日电(光明日报记者冯蕾光明网记者张琳)3月16日,针对美联储加息25个基点,中国宏观经济研究院组织院内外知名专家和媒体,共同研讨加息对全球经济的影响以及我国下一步的应对策略。来自中国宏观经济研究院,以及国务院发展研究中心、商务部、东兴证券的知名专家,围绕美国进入加息周期可能对宏观经济走势、国际经贸形势、大宗商品市场波动、以及对中国重大战略的影响展开深入探讨。

In March 16,

Guangming (Guangming Daily reporter Feng Lei Guangming reporter Zhang Lin) in March 16th, according to the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates 25 basis points, Chinese inside and outside the organization the Academy of Macroeconomic Research Institute of well-known experts and the media, to discuss the influence of interest rate on the global economy and strategy for China’s next. From the China Macro Economic Research Institute, well-known experts and development research center of the State Council and the Ministry of Commerce, Dongxing securities, around the United States into the rate hike cycle of macro economic trend, the international trade situation, commodity market fluctuations, as well as the major strategic China influence in-depth discussion.

  中国宏观经济研究院副院长毕吉耀:

< p <被害」中国のマクロ経済の研究院の副院長の毕吉耀:< /時< / p >

  当前美国经济进入复苏轨道,经济增长相对比较强劲,通货膨胀率逐渐接近美联储所关注的2%的水平。目前美联储加息时机比较合适。此次加息并不意味美国的货币政策已经收紧,总体仍较宽松。

into the current U.S. economic recovery track, economic growth is relatively strong, the inflation rate is gradually close to the Fed on the 2% level. At present, the Fed rate hike timing is appropriate. The interest rate does not mean that the U.S. has tightened monetary policy, overall is still relatively loose.

  首先,本次加息在市场预期之内,此前市场已消化了很多预期的影响。加息之后市场仍有一定反应。美元汇率指数下跌1.08个百分点,美股上升0.8%。对于此次加息国内反应也很快,今天上午央行回购利率、中期借贷利率、招标利率均有上升,离岸市场人民币汇率上涨400个点。

first, this interest rate hike is expected in the market, after the market has digested the much anticipated. The interest rate market is still a certain reaction. The dollar index fell 1.08 percentage points, U.S. stocks rose 0.8%. For the domestic interest rate response is also very fast, this morning the central bank repo rate, lending rate, the interest rate tender medium-term upward, offshore RMB exchange rate rose 400 points.

  其次,美联储官员表示今年还有三次加息,明年也可能还有三次。今后美联储如果持续加息,美元进一步走强,美债收益率上升,则全球债券收益率曲线都将上移。未来我国企业走出去对外融资的借贷成本将会上升,债务也将存在一定风险。

second, Fed officials said this year has raised interest rates three times next year there may be three times. In the future if the Fed continues to raise interest rates, stronger dollar, U.S. bond yields rise, the global bond yield curve will shift. The future of China’s enterprises to go overseas financing borrowing costs will rise, debt will also exist certain risks.

  第三,从国内经济形势来看,去年以来我国经济稳中向好的迹象越来越明显,一季度经济增长有很多亮点。今年完成政府工作报告所提出6.5%左右的增长没有太多的悬念。2017年是全面深化供给侧结构性改革的一年,若美联储连续升息,将引发国内借贷成本的压力上升,对我国经济稳步增长带来不利影响。

< p >第3、国内の経済状況を見ると、昨年以来、中国経済が緩やかに好転の兆しがますます明らかで、四半期経済成長が多くのハイライト。今年完成政府活動報告出し6 . 5%程度の成長はたくさんの懸念。2017年は全面的に深化供給侧構造改革の一年の場合、FRBは連続利上げを起こし、国内の借入コストの圧力が上昇し、わが国の経済は着実に増加に悪影響を及ぼす。< / p >

  第四,未来对于美国经济走势,美联储加息步伐,以及美国退出宽松货币政策回归常态以后,对国际金融市场、汇率及各方面影响还要持续观察。应积极跟踪美联储货币政策的变化和影响,及早做好应对。

< p >第4、未来にアメリカ経済の動向は、FRBの金利上昇のペースとされ、アメリカ緩和政策は常態以降、国際金融市場、為替及び各方面の影響も観察を続ける。積極的にフォローFRB通貨政策の変化と影響を作って、早期対応。< / p >

  中国宏观经济研究院副院长吴晓华:

< p <被害」中国のマクロ経済の研究院の副院長の吴晓华:< /時< / p >

  本次美联储加息,需重点关注以下四个问题。一是做实了美元进入加息周期的基本判断,下阶段要紧密跟踪加息的节奏和力度。对全球产业分工格局将产生哪些深刻影响,我国宏观经济政策该如何有效应对?三是中美两国应加强战略沟通,为稳定世界经济作出表率。四是我国应展现大国自信,保持战略定力,趋利避害,及时对美联储加息等国际大事件作出回应,向世界传递积极稳定信号。

the Fed rate hike, the need to focus on the following four questions. This is a basic judgment of the dollar into the rate hike cycle, the next stage should closely follow the rhythm and intensity of interest rate. Which will have a profound impact on the global industrial structure, China’s macroeconomic policy how to effectively deal with? The three countries should strengthen strategic communication, to set an example for the stability of the world economy. Four China should show the power of confidence, maintain strategic concentration, and timely respond to the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates and other major international events, send a positive signal to the world stability.

  中国宏观经济研究院研究员白和金:

Researcher Chinese Macroeconomic Research Institute

Bai Hejin:

  国内外市场如此关注美联储加息,这本身说明了经济全球化已是一个既成事实,而且是一个不可逆转的趋势,并不会因为某个政党或某位政治领导人上台而出现反转。其次,本次美联储加息酝酿已久并且在市场预期之中,与特朗普上台并没有直接关系,也未造成外汇市场、金融市场、资本市场的剧烈动荡,我们也没有必要急于去做出一个大的反应,淡定的心态冷静观察即可。但也要清醒地认识到,本次美联储加息是一个标志性的事件,标志着以美国为首的西方国家开始进入了新一轮的加息周期,可能6月份、年末还有一次加息,加息周期会到什么时候为止,力度会有多大,会受什么国内国外经济因素或者非经济因素影响,这是更值得我们下阶段深入观察和研究分析的事情。在关注美联储带给我国直接影响的同时,还要密切关注由其他经济体政策调整可能给我国带来的间接影响。总的来说,美联储加息是一把双刃剑,我们应充分认识其可能带来的深刻影响,趋利避害,形成合力,在充分利用它给我们带来好处的同时并最大限度避免减少对我们带来的负面冲击。

domestic market is so concerned about the Fed rate hike, which itself is the economic globalization has been a an established fact, and is an irreversible trend, and not because of a political party or a political leader and a reversal. Secondly, the Fed rate hike has been brewing for a long time and in the market expected, and Trump came to power and there is no direct relationship, turmoil caused no foreign exchange market, financial market and capital market, we do not need to rush to make a big reaction, heart state observation can calm calm. But we must also recognize that, the Fed rate hike is a landmark event, marking the western countries headed by the United States began to enter a new round of interest rate hike cycle, at the end of June, there may be a rate hike, the rate hike cycle to what time, efforts will be, will be what factors influence domestic and foreign economic or non economic factors, which is more worthy of our in-depth observation and analysis of the next stage. On the fed to China directly. At the same time, we should pay close attention to by other economies, policy adjustments may indirectly affect to china. In general, the Fed rate hike is a double-edged sword, we should be fully aware of the profound influence, which may bring disadvantages, make full use of it to form a cohesive force, give us the benefits at the same time and the maximum to avoid and reduce the negative impact on us.

  中国宏观经济研究院研究员马晓河:

Researcher Chinese Macroeconomic Research Institute

Ma Xiaohe:

  一是美元加息周期已到来,目前来看,虽然本次加息对我国总体影响较小,但应密切关注加息周期形成所可能带来的“叠加效应”。二是我国是典型的出超型经济体,对国际市场高度依赖,美元加息将从供给层面对国内经济产生一定冲击。从历史经验来看,美联储加息将会对汇市、债市、股市、期市产生深刻影响,需提前加以预判。三是美联储加息将对我国宏观政策产生影响,维持稳定货币流动性的难度将会有所增加,稳增长目标达成难度也会随之增大。三是要认识到近年来我国应对美联储加息的综合能力正在加强,宏观调控的有效性有明显提升。建议进一步增强人民币汇率的灵活性和弹性;抓紧推进供给侧结构改革,深入落实“三去一降一补”重点任务;积极防范金融风险,特别要关注输入性通胀和国内价格持续上涨叠加所可能带来的负面冲击。

is a US interest rate hike cycle has come, now, although the interest rate has little effect on China’s overall, but should pay close attention to the interest rate cycle form a superimposed effect may bring “”. Two of China’s economy is a typical, highly dependent on the international market, the dollar interest rate will have a certain impact on the supply in the domestic economy. From the historical experience, the Fed rate hike will have a profound impact on currencies, bonds, stock market, futures market, to predict in advance. The three is the Fed rate hike will have an impact on China’s macroeconomic policy, liquidity to maintain a stable currency difficulty will be increased, the steady growth will increase the difficulty to achieve the goal. The three is to realize the comprehensive ability of our country to deal with the Fed rate hike is increasing in recent years, the effectiveness of macro-control has improved significantly. Suggestions to further enhance RMB exchange rate flexibility and elasticity; speeding up the supply side structural reform, in-depth implementation of the “three to one drop fill” key tasks; actively guard against financial risks, pay special attention to imported inflation and domestic prices continued to rise by the superposition may bring negative impacts.

  东兴证券首席经济学家张岸元:

p〉〈時は> <東興証券チーフエコノミスト张岸元:< /時< / p >

  我主要讲四个方面的内容:一是金融市场对此次加息已经有充分的预期,但对国内做券商研究来说,很难对美国经济基本面下一步走势做特别深入的研究。二是美国国内货币政策和财政政策冲突,这点是非常重要的。从历史来看,美国一直是货币政策在引导市场预期,特朗普上台之后发生变化,美联储开始追随市场变化做被动调整,目前看美国财政政策和货币政策之间存在巨大冲突和矛盾,政府需要多花钱,如果利率非常高肯定是受不了的。所以这个情况下,中期加息的可持续性还是需持必要怀疑的态度。三是香港离岸市场反应,这是非常重要的。美联储加息后,香港金管局随后也加息了0.25%,但香港商业银行没有做相应反应,我觉得这个影响还是很大的。离岸市场汇率也发生了变化,大家也已经看到。下一步关于离岸市场这块,毕竟和内地的联系非常强,下一步美联储加息,香港一定也会跟着连续加息,会给香港债券市场造成究竟什么样的影响,还是需要引起密切关注的。四是美联储财政问题。特朗普基建的方案是在十年内投入5500亿美元,一年是550亿美元,相当于美国GDP的15.4%。我们简单算一下,每年联邦财政收入3.25万亿美元,赤字1300亿美元,按照3%的赤字率倒推一下,联邦政府赤字空间最多也就1500亿到2000亿美元,国债规模的扩大势在必行,这种情况下一定不会把利率推起来。

I mainly talk about four aspects: one is that the financial market has been full of expectations of the rate hike, but the domestic brokerage research, it is difficult for the U.S. economic fundamentals the next trend especially in-depth study. The two is the domestic monetary and fiscal policy conflict, this is very important. From the historical point of view, the United States has been the monetary policy under the guidance of market expectations, Trump came to power after the change, the Fed began to follow the market changes the passive adjustment, at present there is a huge contradiction and the conflict between American fiscal policy and monetary policy, the government needs to spend more money, if the interest rate is very high is certainly not stand. So in this case, the sustainability of the medium-term interest rate still need to hold the necessary skepticism. The three is the offshore market in Hongkong, this is very important. The Fed’s interest rate hike, the Hongkong monetary authority subsequently increases 0.25%, but Hongkong commercial banks did not have the corresponding reaction, I think this is a great influence. The offshore market exchange rate changes, we have seen. The next step on the offshore market, after all, and the contact of the mainland is very strong, the next step of the Fed rate hike, Hongkong will follow the continuous hike, will give the Hongkong bond market caused by exactly what effect, still need to pay close attention to the cause. The four is the Fed’s financial problems. This scheme is built podium with $550 billion in ten years, a year is $55 billion, equivalent to GDP 15.4%. We simply count, $3 trillion and 250 billion of federal revenue each year, a deficit of $130 billion, according to 3% of the deficit rate push down the federal deficit space at most 150 billion to $200 billion, the size of the debt expansion trend is imperative, not in this case to push up interest rates.

  商务部国际贸易经济合作研究院研究员霍建国:

Department of Commerce International Trade and Economic Cooperation Research Institute researcher Huo Jianguo:

  美联储加息受到国内外政府、机构、学者的广泛关注。总体看,加息对市场短期冲击不大,主要原因在于市场对加息预期进行了充分的消化,有必要更多关注中长期影响,也就是美联储连续加息后对全球和我国经济的影响。

Attention

Fed rate hike by domestic and foreign governments, institutions and scholars. Overall, the interest rate on the market short-term impact is not big, the main reason is that the market is expected to raise interest rates for the full digestion, pay more attention to long-term effect is also necessary, impact on the global economy of our country and the Fed interest rate rise after.

  从商品市场看,去年国际大宗商品价格出现回升,也带动不少国家物价水平上涨,这有利于缓解通缩压力、促进企业经营效益好转、提振国际贸易,在一定意义上讲是件好事。未来,美国持续加息将增加美国和全球经济复苏的不确定性,大宗产品价格需求难以出现明显回升,同时加息可能导致美元汇率上涨,对大宗产品价格产生下压作用,再加上OPEC与非OPEC国家围绕限产的博弈等因素,大宗产品价格保持住回升走势难度增加。本来估计今年国际贸易在整个全球经济略有回升的情况下将出现好转,但目前看不确定性增加。

< p >から商品市場を見て、去年の国際バルク商品価格が反発して、多くの国にもつながる物価水準の上昇、助長デフレ圧力を緩和、企業経営収益悪化、ブースト国際貿易は、一定の意味ではよい事。未来、アメリカ利上げを続けて増加アメリカと世界経済の回復の不確実性、大口需要が明らかに出にくい製品の価格を回復し、同時に引き上げドルの為替レートは上昇につながる可能性は、大口の製品の価格が下圧作用に加え、OPECと非OPEC国限产綱引きなどの要素をめぐって、大口の製品の価格の動きをピックアップして住んでいる難易度増加。今年は本来と国際貿易は全体の世界経済の回復の場合は少しが好転して、しかし現在見不確実性の増加。< / p >

  从货币市场看,当前人民币贬值预期较之去年有所缓解,特别是今年1、2月份的贸易数据好于预期,也有利于人民币汇率的稳定。未来,如果美联储持续加息并引发美元汇率上升的话,人民币汇率还将继续承压。美元持续加息对人民币汇率的影响不容忽视,目前所采取的措施感觉力度和效果并不理想,根据以往经验解决这个问题从根本上讲还要靠稳定经济增长,经济增长稳住了,汇率自然就稳住了。我认为今年完成6.5%左右的增长目标没有问题,贸易也有望继续回升,这为稳定人民币汇率提供了支撑,同时也要采取针对性措施应对美元持续加息。

from the money market, the devaluation of the renminbi is expected than last year eased, especially trade data for the year 1 and February was better than expected, but also conducive to the stability of the RMB exchange rate. The future, if the Fed continues to raise interest rates and lead to the dollar rising, the RMB exchange rate will remain under pressure. Interest rates continue to impact the dollar against the RMB exchange rate can not be ignored, the measures taken by the intensity of feeling and the effect is not ideal, based on past experience to solve this problem fundamentally depends on stable economic growth, economic growth to stabilize the exchange rate, nature will stabilize. I think about 6.5% growth target this year is no problem, trade is expected to continue to rise, which provides support for the stability of the RMB exchange rate, but also to take specific measures to deal with the dollar interest rate.

  从债券市场看,我国地方债、企业债问题外界跟踪评论的很多,如果美元持续加息可能引发全球性利率上涨,这对降低地方政府和企业的融资成本不利,将影响我国债券市场的稳定运行。另外,我国还持有大量的美国国债,目前美国长期国债利率并未因加息而出现明显变化,但未来如果持续加息,美国国债利率也将随之上涨,何去何从问题又将显现。

from the bond market, many enterprises in our country, external debt problem of local government debt tracking comments, if sustained increases in interest rates may lead to global dollar interest rates rise, which is detrimental to the local government and reduce financing costs, will affect the stable operation of China’s bond market. In addition, China also holds a large number of U.S. Treasury bonds, the U.S. long-term bond interest rates did not raise interest rates due to varied, but in the future if sustained increases in interest rates, the U.S. Treasury interest rates will rise, and decide on what path to follow will appear.

  对于我国而言,要贯彻落实新发展理念,主动适应把握引领经济发展新常态,紧紧围绕供给侧结构性改革主线,保持战略定力,坚持稳中求进,沿着既定方向落实好重要举措,越往下走痛苦就会越小,越往下走应对外部冲击能力就会越强。特别是要加快构建开放型经济新体制,发挥好自由贸易试验区作用,以开放促改革促发展。

< p >はわが国にとって、徹底的に実行する新しい発展理念に適応して、自発的に把握して経済発展の新しい常態、密接に供給侧構造改革を軸に、戦略力を堅持し、稳中求进、既定の方向に沿って重要な措置を実行に移し、下に行くほど苦しみが小さいほど、ますます下に行くに対応能力は外部の衝撃強く。特に新体制の構築を急ぐ開放型経済、良い自由貿易試験区の作用を促進、開放改革発展を促進さ。< / p >

  国务院发展研究中心宏观经济研究部研究员张立群:

< p <時>国務院発展研究センターマクロ経済研究部研究員张立群:< /時< / p >

  目前美联储已经于2015年12月后实施了三次加息,但未来加息的力度和节奏还存在较大不确定性。首先,美国经济虽然保持住了温和复苏态势,失业率也接近自然失业率水平,但外部环境依然偏紧,复苏基础也不扎实,加上加息产生对企业投资、居民消费的抑制作用,经济走势还存在一定的不确定性。其次,特朗普减税、增加基础设施投资的政策将增加美国政府的债务负担,这需要宽松货币环境的支持,而目前货币政策走向是背道而驰的。从以往情况看,美国的财政和货币政策往往是相互配合的,未来二者如何协调、怎么协调还有待观察。按照美国的财年制度,特朗普的财政政策主张要到明年初才能落实,如果说这之前美联储可能抓住“窗口期”继续加息的话,那么在特朗普财政政策落地后,加上美联储主席的交替,加息能否继续推进则需要画一个大的问号。

< p >現在FRBは、2015年じゅうに月後に実施した3回の利上げが、未来の金利上昇の強さとリズムが不確実性が大きい。まず、アメリカ経済はキープでき回復態勢温和、失業率も自然に近い失業率レベルが、外部環境は偏紧、回復基盤も着実に加え、利上げに企業の投資や消費者の抑制効果は、経済の動向はある一定の不確実性。次に、トランプ減税、増加のインフラ投資の政策を政府の債務負担を増加アメリカが必要で、緩和環境の支持で、現在は弾を執りて鳥を招く通貨政策への。従来の状況を見て、アメリカの財政と金融政策はよく互いに協力する、未来の二者はどう協調、どう協調はなお観察。アメリカの年度制度によって、トランプの財政政策を主張来年初め才能を実行して、これまでにFRBが「ウインドウ期」を続けて金利上昇のならば、トランプ財政政策到着後に加え、FRB議長の交代、利上げに続いて描けばかどうか続推進は大きな疑問符。< / p >

  我国经济发展稳中有进、稳中向好,特别是近期固定资产投资、发电量、对外贸易等一系列指标表现良好,PPI持续负增长也已结束,增长速度处于合理区间,未来经济回稳向好基础将更加扎实。在这样的背景条件下,我认为对美联储的加息不必过度紧张。要坚持以我为主,根据国内宏观经济运行情况,对我国货币政策进行主动性调整,而不是根据美国货币政策进行被动性调整。从大势看,人民币在国际货币体系中的地位是将逐步提升的,不可能兑美元持续走弱,而且这个大趋势未来将越来越鲜明,从这个角度讲,我国货币政策调整也要坚持以我为主。

China’s economic development into a steady, steady for the better, especially the recent performance of fixed asset investment, power generation, and a series of foreign trade index is good, PPI continued negative growth has ended, the growth rate in a reasonable range, the future will be more solid foundation for economic stabilization. In this context, I think the fed to raise interest rates without excessive tension. We must uphold the principle, according to the domestic macroeconomic situation, active adjustment of China’s monetary policy, and not according to the passive adjustment of monetary policy. From the trend, the RMB in the international monetary system is to gradually improve, not against the weakening dollar, and the trend of the future will be more and more distinct, from this perspective, China’s monetary policy adjustment should adhere to the principal.

  中国宏观经济研究所对外经济研究所副所长吴涧生:

China macroeconomic research of Foreign Economic Research Institute deputy director Wu Jiansheng:

  如何看美联储这次加息及其下一步走势?实际上,美联储加息与否通常最看重的两个核心指标即是价格指标和就业指标,应该说这两个指标基本符合美联储当前加息的要求,从价格指数来看,1月份CPI同比上涨2.5%,核心CPI上涨2.3%,已经达到了美联储调控的区间目标。而2月份失业率从1月的4.8%降到4.7%,1月和2月的新增非农就业数都超过了20多万人,可见目前美国的就业状况是比较好的。

< p >どう見てFRB今回引き上げ及びその次の動きか?実際には、FRBの金利上昇と通常最も重視するかどうかの2つのコアターゲットは価格指標と雇用の指標は、この二つの指標にFRBの金利は現在の基本要求、価格指数を見ると、いち月CPIは前年同月比で2 . 5%、コアCPI上昇2 . 3%に達しているから、FRBのコントロールの区間の目標。そして2月に失業率は4 . 8%からいち月まで下がるいちも4月と2月に新規の非農業部門雇用者数を超えたにじゅう万人、アメリカ見える現在の雇用状況は比較的に良い。< / p >

  再看看美联储这次加息的动因,我觉得还有更深层次更长远的考虑,旨在超前性、有针对性应对特朗普政府实施一系列政策措施可能带来的通货膨胀压力,这是预期性的压力。大家都知道,特朗普的减税、放松金融监管、扩大基础设施建设等政策主张一旦逐步落实,势必会导致财政政策的超宽松,加大“流动性通胀”压力。特朗普推行的贸易保护主义,势必会抬高美国进口商品的价格,导致整体物价水平上升,加大“消费型”通胀压力;而特朗普实行移民限制禁令,或将提高劳动力工资成本,也会加大“成本型通胀”压力。从这个意义上讲,美联储这次加息是主动性的和适应性的,具有应对未来通胀上升预期的前瞻意义。

look at the causes of the fed to raise interest rates, I think there is a deeper and more long-term considerations, in order to advance, has implemented a series of policies and measures may bring inflation pressure to deal with the Trump administration, which is expected to pressure. We all know that the Trump tax cuts, financial deregulation, expanding infrastructure policies such as once gradually implemented, will inevitably lead to the ultra loose fiscal policy, increase liquidity inflation pressure. Trump carried out the trade protectionism, is bound to raise the prices of imported goods, resulting in the overall price level to rise, increase the “consumption” inflation pressure; and Trump to implement immigration restrictions or bans, will raise the wage labor costs, will also increase the cost of inflation pressure type “. In this sense, the Fed rate hike is initiative and adaptability, has to deal with rising inflation expectations of future prospective significance.

  但也要看到,美联储的加息周期并没有真正形成,美联储这次加息一方面要凸显其政策的独立性,另一方面也带有或多或少的政治意味和色彩。结合前面讲的,美联储声称今年要加三次,上半年一次,那么下半年就是两次。但是,从美国经济增长的可持续性和相关指标来看,今年下半年再加一次的可能性比较大,加两次可能并不大。因为去年美国经济四个季度分别增长0.8%、1.4%、3.5%、1.9%,全年仅增长1.6%,是国际金融危机后2011年以来的最低增幅,比2015年下降1个百分点。虽然包括美联储在内的各方面预测今年美国经济增长势头要好于去年,但仍没有达到其3%左右的潜在增长水平,因此目前还不宜对美国经济预期估计过高。

< p >が見て、FRBの利上げサイクルは真の形成は、FRBは今回でその政策金利上げの独立性、一方、多かれ少なかれ意味と色の政治。結合前の話、FRBと今年3回に加え、半年に一度、下半期は2度。しかし、アメリカ経済成長の持続可能性に関する指標と見ると、今年後半に加えて次の可能性が大きくて、プラス2度しないかもしれない。去年アメリカ経済4四半期. 0%、1 . 4%、それぞれ増加し3 . 5%、1 . 9%、年間%増1 . 6%で、国際金融危機後の2011年以来の最低の増加、2015年よりいちポイント低下。は、FRBの各方面を含む今年経済成長の勢いは予測アメリカ仲は昨年、しかし依然としてその3%程度に達していない潜在成長レベルのため、現在まだ不適にアメリカ経済予想を買いかぶる。< / p >

  而从美国的产能利用率来看,今年1月份是75.3%,低于80%左右的长期平均水平,这表明美国当前的产能利用率还没有恢复到长期正常水平。特别是,特朗普推行的很多政策,如减税政策,基础设施建设,以及上调政府债务上限,加之还有保护主义等,能否真正付诸实施还面临较大的不确定性。

from the United States and the capacity utilization, in January this year is 75.3%, lower than the long-term average of about 80%, indicating that the U.S. current capacity utilization has not been restored to the normal level of long-term. In particular, many of Mr Trump’s policies, such as tax cuts, infrastructure construction, and increase the government’s debt ceiling, coupled with protectionism, can really put into practice but also face greater uncertainty.

  此外,从外部环境看,全球主要经济体如欧盟、日本及新兴经济体都依然面临较大的下行压力,不容乐观,加上特朗普新政的因素、英国脱欧、欧洲一些国家大选的因素,以及局部地区持续动荡等都会直接或间接影响美国经济复苏与增长。因此,目前断言美联储加息周期已经形成可能还为时过早,需要进一步观察。第二个问题是加息带来的影响。应该说,这次加息对美国经济来说总体是利好的,但对包括中国在内的其他经济体的影响更多是负面的,对此应有清醒的认识和估计。从一个较长时期来看,若美联储连续加息,“高利差”势必会加剧全球主要经济体宏观经济政策的分化,导致全球资本流动性紊乱,极易引发系统性金融风险。再就是加大“资本虹吸效应”,新兴经济体将面临日益加大的资本抽逃压力和风险,也会加重相关国家的资产价格下跌、货币贬值、外债负担及国内金融市场风险。这也是一个大体判断。

in addition, from the external environment, the world’s major economies such as the European Union, Japan and emerging economies are still facing downward pressure, the larger is not optimistic, and the factors of Trump’s new deal, the British general election and some countries of Europe, the European factors and local turmoil will the U.S. economic recovery and growth directly or indirect effect. Therefore, the assertion that the Fed rate hike cycle has been formed may be premature, the need for further observation. The second problem is the impact of interest rate. It should be said that the interest rate hike on the American economy in general is good, but the impact on other economies including China, the more negative, this should have a clear understanding and estimation. In a long time, if the Fed interest rate hikes, “differentiation of high spreads will increase the world’s major economies, macroeconomic policy, leading to global capital mobility disorder, easily lead to systemic financial risks. Another is to increase capital siphon effect, emerging economies will face increasing pressure and the risk of capital flight, will also increase the national asset prices, currency devaluation, foreign debt burden and the domestic financial market risk. This is a general judgment.

  事实上,对中国而言,我们在这方面已经采取了不少对冲性举措,不断依据市场上调逆回购操作和中期借贷便利(MLF),我认为采取这样的政策措施是“两害相较取其轻”。我们的经济本身下行压力比较大,这个时候提高利率就会加大市场融资成本,加大企业生产和投资成本,不利于促进经济企稳向好。但是,央行这样做,不仅有效防止形成人民币持续贬值的预期和外汇储备急剧减少的压力,而且也较好应对了特朗普的新政,不给其指控我为“汇率操纵国”的口实,从而有利于促进中美经贸关系稳定的大局。

< p >は事実上、中国において、私たちはこの方面をとってきた多くのヘッジ性措置によって引き上げて市場操作逆買い戻しと中期貸し借り便利(MLF)、私はこのような政策措置をとる「二害ぶればその光を」。我々の経済自体下押し圧力が大きいので、この時に利上げを高めると市場の資金調達コストを企業の生産と投資原価によって促進経済が次第に良く。しかし、中央銀行としてだけでなく、人民元安防止に効果的な形成続けの予想と外貨準備の圧力が急激に減少し、さらに良い対応したトランプのニューディール、あげないその疑惑私は「為替操作国」の口実に役立つことによって、中米経済貿易関係の大局係安定。< / p >

  下一阶段,随着美联储的进一步加息,人民币长期贬值的压力还是有的,但只要我们保持战略和政策定力,加强和改善宏观调控,特别是货币政策调控,我们是完全能够有效应对的。在政策建议方面,我想当前最重要的还是要加强中美双方的战略和经济对话,加强沟通交流和相关政策合作,这一点非常重要,这里不仅仅是财政政策和货币政策,还有汇率政策、贸易政策等,避免中美双边关系走向冲突。再就是,要坚持汇率市场化的改革,加强外汇储备的管控和资本流动性监管,继续稳步推进人民币国际化,从而有效应对外部环境给我带来的不利影响。

< p >の次の段階につれて、FRBのさらなる引き上げ、人民元の長期安の圧力もあるが、私たちは戦略と政策力を維持し、マクロコントロールを強化、改善し、特に通貨政策コントロール、私達は完全に対応できるの。政策提案については、私は現在最も重要なのは中米双方の強化戦略経済対話を強化し、コミュニケーションと関連政策と協力して、この点は非常に重要で、ここでは財政政策と金融政策も、為替政策、貿易政策など、中米両国関係への衝突を避ける。また、堅持して為替市場化の改革を強化し、外貨準備の管理と資本の流動性管理を着実に推進する人民元の国際化を続けることによって、有効な対応外部環境に私の悪影響。< / p >

  中国宏观经济研究院对外经济研究所研究员姚淑梅:

< p <被害」中国のマクロ経済研究院対外経済研究所の研究員の姚淑梅:< /時< / p >

  今年以来,美联储不断释放加息信号,引导市场预期。美联储3月议息会议临近时,主要机构对3月加息概率的预测均在90%以上。由于此次加息的前瞻性指引与市场预期一致,市场反应很正面。主要表现:一是美元指数与国债收益率下滑,美股大涨,显示出市场紧张情绪的缓解以及对美国经济持续向好的信心;二是新兴市场货币对美元汇率表现稳定。美联储加息后,印度、墨西哥、马来西亚、巴西、南非等国货币对美元汇率均呈现微幅升值,表明美联储加息并未引发新兴市场恐慌。目前看,就短期影响来说,由于美联储3月如期升息,市场情绪已经稳定。虽然美联储加息指引显示年内还有两次加息,但市场普遍预计6月之前不会加息,这在短期内有利于稳定资本流动。此外,美联储加息是基于美国经济形势改善,但从国际大环境看,此次加息与之前两次加息时美国经济一枝独秀不同,中国、欧元区经济形势明显向好,日本经济微幅改善,新兴市场经济已呈现触底回升迹象,市场对主要央行货币政策已有收紧预期。这种情况下,美元指数上涨空间有限。只要中国经济继续稳中向好,人民币汇率在合理均衡的水平上保持稳定就不会有太大压力。从中期看,美联储首次提及“对称通胀目标”概念,虽然耶伦表示不必对此过度解读,但仍引发市场的想象空间,部分观点认为美联储已将通胀目标由2%的上限调整为2%的调控中枢,表明美联储或对通胀容忍度上升,预示着未来加息步伐相对缓和。不过,从特朗普经济政策的很多需求看,是需要弱势美元做支撑的。总之,美联储加息必然会一定程度推升美元,加大我国资本外流压力,需密切跟踪应对。但综合多方面因素看,也要保持定力,无需过度反应。

  中国宏观经济研究员市场与价格研究所所长臧跃茹:

< p <被害」中国のマクロ経済研究員と価格市場研究所所長臧跃茹:< /時< / p >

  此次美元加息对国内外市场的影响有限但值得关注,对全球范围的通胀上行势头将起到一定的减缓和抑制作用。

p >今回ドル引き上げ<国内外市場の影響有限が注目に値するのは、世界の範囲のインフレを上り勢いから一定の速度を緩めると抑制作用。< / p >

  美元加息对股、债、楼、汇等重点市场的影响要区别对待。对股市和楼市影响较小,且主要是间接影响。股市和楼市走势取决于国内相关政策。对债市和汇市短期影响较小,中长期受资本流动和各国货币政策影响。特朗普政策推进中遇到各种因素干扰和阻碍,资本流动受特朗普效应的影响在减弱,加息对于资本回流的影响较去年相对弱化,债市、汇市压力有所缓解。如果美元进入加息通道,债市、汇市将继续承压。

Effect of

on stocks, bonds, the dollar interest rate floor, sinks and other key markets to treat them differently. Less impact on the stock market and property market, and is mainly indirect effects. The stock market and property market trend depends on the domestic policy. The bond markets and currencies short-term impact is small, in the long-term influence of capital flows and monetary policy. Trump met in the policy to promote the various factors and obstacles, capital flow is influenced by the Trump effect in weakening interest rates affecting the capital return of last year is relatively weak, the bond market, easing pressure on currencies. If the dollar into the interest rate channel, bonds, currencies will continue to pressure.

  美联储开启加息周期可能引发全球货币政策的调整、转向,从过去的流动性比较宽松转向收紧的态势,对全球范围通胀的上行将起到一定抑制作用,有助于缓解输入性通胀压力。

Open the

Fed rate hike cycle could trigger a global monetary policy adjustment, steering, relatively loose liquidity from the past to tightening trend of upward worldwide inflation will play a certain effect, help to alleviate the pressure of imported inflation.

  建议我国保持战略定力,做到“长期两促,短期三稳”,从容应对加息对我国市场的影响。一是保持恒心促转型,按照既定方针转型促增长,消减外部不利影响。二是保持决心促改革,在稳定增长的同时加快金融体制的改革。三是保持定力稳货币,保持货币政策稳健中性的总基调,加快资金“脱虚入实”,优化市场流动性环境。四是保持节奏稳杠杆,加息可能产生加杠杆的效应,对去杠杆任务产生一定压力,短期以稳杠杆为主,保持去杠杆节奏,防范相关风险。五是保持态度稳预期,坚定对经济增长态势的信心。

  中国宏观经济研究院经济研究所副所长郭春丽:

< p <被害」中国のマクロ経済研究院経済研究所副所長郭春丽:< /時< / p >

  首先,美联储加息对我们国内的宏观经济短期影响有限,中长期影响更多是中美两国经济基本面的变化。对我国宏观经济的影响方面,一是高度关注本次加息对我国短期资本流动、人民币汇率、大类金融资产等方面的影响。二是美联储加息对我国实体经济影响的链条较长,程度有限,但要密切跟踪美国加息周期后产生的中长期影响。

first, the Fed rate hike impact on us macroeconomic short-term domestic limited long-term impact of more changes of Sino US economic fundamentals. The influence of the macro economy of our country, one is highly concerned about the current interest rate hike impact on short-term capital flow in China, the RMB exchange rate, financial assets, etc.. The two is the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates on China’s real economy impact of the chain is longer, the level is limited, but long-term effects to closely follow the U.S. rate hike cycle after.

  其次,除跟踪美联储对我国金融影响外,更需关注美国加息周期对我国实体经济尤其制造业发展环境的影响。我国产能调整已经持续六年时间,随之PPI也出现四年多的负增长。从周期波动的角度来看判断今年产能调整可能会迎来短暂的触底阶段。去年后半年我国出现比较好的态势,应该抓住这个态势,积极促进实体经济发展,尤其是制造业转型升级。

< p >次にり、追跡FRBはわが国金融影響のほか、さらに注目する必要がアメリカ利上げサイクルは我が国の実体経済が特に製造業の発展の環境影響。我が国の生産調整が続いて6年間、次にPPIも出て4年以上のマイナス成長。週期変動の観点から判断能力を迎える今年調整可能な短い底段階。昨年後半わが国が比較的に良い態勢を捉えるべきこの態勢を促進する、実体経済の発展、特に制造業の変換とアップグレード。< / p >

  第三,美联储加息对我国货币政策不构成决定性的影响,我们应该保持政策定力,维持稳健的政策基调和自身的操作节奏。我国宏观经济的基本面总体稳定,不需要对美国政策做出针对性的调整。今天央行进行中期借贷便利(MLF)和逆回购操作的利率较之前有所上升。可能有的人会和美联储加息联系起来。但这种变化在今年1月下旬的公开市场操作中已经显现,货币市场2月中旬以来呈现缓慢上升趋势,与稳健中性的货币政策取向是相对应的。

< p >第三、FRBの金利上昇は我が国の通貨政策を構成しない決定的な影響は、私たちを守るべき政策力を維持し、穏健な政策を基調と自身の操作のリズム。中国のマクロ経済のファンダメンタルズは全体の安定、不必要にアメリカ政策を調整するに対して。今日の中央銀行借り入れを中期(便利MLF)と逆買い戻し操作の金利が上昇する前に。ある人とFRB利上げに繋がる。しかしその変化は今年いち月下旬の公開市場操作の中ですでに現れ、通貨市場に月中旬以来が上昇傾向にあり、と穏健中性の通貨政策指向は対応した。< / p >

  中国宏观经济研究院投资研究所所长张长春:

Chinese investment director of the Institute of Macroeconomic Research Institute of Zhang Changchun:

  第一,美联储加息周期对我国投资的影响是比较明显的,影响渠道是从汇率传导到工业制造品,进而传导到制造业产出,再影响制造业的投资。同时,贸易部门与非贸易部门联系密切,美元加息对全社会投资增长的影响比较明显。如果一味追求汇率稳定目标,将带来比较明显的负面影响,尤其是对外汇储备造成影响,从而影响国内资本市场稳定。如果不跟随美国进行加息,将对国内流动性带来比较大的影响。

first, the Fed rate hike cycle of investment in China is more obvious, influence from the exchange rate channel is transmitted to the industrial manufactured goods, and then transfer to the manufacturing output, and manufacturing investment. At the same time, closely related to trade and non trade sector, investment dollar interest rate to the whole society increase obviously. If the blind pursuit of a stable exchange rate target, will bring the negative influence is obvious, especially the impact of foreign exchange reserves, thus affecting the stability of the capital market in china. If you do not follow the United States to raise interest rates, will bring great impact on domestic liquidity.

  第二,不必过于担心美元加息的影响。因为这种影响早已发生,今天美元加息宣布之后,做出明显调整的不是市场预期,而是预期差。从2017年的数据可以看到,美元加息的影响其实已经现实地发生了,投资、消费受到一定的影响。

second, need not be too worried about the impact of the dollar interest rate hike. Because this effect has already occurred, after the dollar rate hike today announced that make a significant adjustment than market expectations, but the expected difference. From 2017 data can see, influence the dollar interest rate hike is already realistically, investment and consumption is affected.

  第三,建议央行增加定向政策,适当增加人民币汇率弹性。新兴经济体如果都贬值,我们也可以贬一点,或者增加人民币的弹性。同时积极引导制造业产品和高档品出口,促进国内转型升级。这样操作有利于推动企业“走出去”。最关键的问题还是把我们自己的事情做好。

< p >第三、中央銀行の政策提案増加方向に適切に増加し、人民元の為替レートの弾性。新興経済体が安もマイナス点、または増加人民元の弾性。また積極的に導く製造業の製品と高級品の輸出を促進し、国内の変換とアップグレード。この操作を促進するための企業が“歩いて出て行きます」。最も肝心な問題は、自分たちの仕事。< / p >

  中国宏观经济研究院国土开发与地区经济研究所所长史育龙:

< p <被害」中国のマクロ経済研究院国土開発と地域経済研究所所長史育龙:< /時< / p >

  谈两个观点,第一个观点,这次美元加息给我们国内稳增长应该说是提供了很好的机遇,我们应该顺势而为,巩固从去年四季度以来出现的回稳向好的一个态势,我们因为从区域的角度更多关注沿海地区和困难地区,东部沿海地区占的份额到了55%,所以东部地区稳住了,整体的经济就能够稳住。我们关注一个数据,一到二月份外贸的情况普遍回暖,但是出现一个特例,外贸二月份增长11.4%,同时有一个很显著的特点,全国沿海地区增速低于全国平均水平,占全国贸易1/3以上的广东、江苏,其出口、进口的差距都在15个点左右,全国的水平在23个点这样一个水平,这样的话我们觉得利用现在加息让我们的人民币汇率保持灵活性,有助于进一步巩固增长,特别是有助于缩小进出口差距,对沿海地区起到积极的作用。

about two points, the first point of view, the dollar interest rate for our domestic steady growth should be said to be a good opportunity, we should take advantage of the consolidation of the fourth quarter of last year appeared a trend stabilized for the better, because we are from a regional perspective more attention to coastal areas and difficult areas in eastern coastal areas area share to 55%, so the eastern region to stabilize the overall economy will stabilize. We focus on a data, to February foreign trade situation is generally warmer, but there is a special case, foreign trade growth of 11.4% in February, at the same time there is a very significant feature of the national coastal areas, growth rate is lower than the national average, Guangdong, Jiangsu national trade accounted for more than 1/3, the export and import of the gap in 15 at about the level of such a level at 23 points, so we feel the interest now we make RMB exchange rate flexibility, help to further consolidate growth, especially to help narrow the gap between import and export, to play a positive role in coastal areas.

  第二个观点,提到对外投资的问题,非金融类对外投资达到前所未有1706亿这样一个高水平,增幅达到44%,去年四季度以来由于对外投资增长过快,出现了回调的趋势。“一带一路”建设进入到了第四个年头,是一个很关键的时期,而在这种情况下,如果我们的对外投资跟去年有如此大幅度的下滑的话,可能会有更长远的一些影响。美元加息导致资本回流,同时美国也推出了如此巨量的基础设施建设规划,对于我们的“一带一路”建设,基础设施领域的合作,对于中国企业可能是一个机遇窗口。

second points, mentioned the problems of foreign investment, non-financial foreign investment reached a hitherto unknown 170 billion 600 million of such a high level, an increase of 44%, since the fourth quarter of last year due to excessive growth of foreign investment, callback trend. “The Belt and Road construction entered its fourth year, is a very critical period, and in this case, if the foreign investment in our last year with such a sharp decline, there may be some long-term effect. The dollar interest rates led to the return of capital, while the United States also launched such a massive infrastructure planning, for our “The Belt and Road construction, cooperation in the field of infrastructure, for China enterprises may be a window of opportunity.

  中国宏观经济研究院产业经济与技术经济研究所所长黄汉权:

< p <被害」中国のマクロ経済研究院の産業経済と技術経済研究所の所長黄汉权:< /時< / p >

  美联储加息如期而至,市场的反应还是比较平稳。第一,从产业的角度来说,有利有弊,好坏参半。从去年下半年第四季度到今年1、2月份的数字来看,国内产业的走势稳中向好,无论是PPI的走势,企业盈利,去产能进展,传统产业改造升级,还是新兴产业和战略性产业的发展,各种新技术、新业态、新模式、新产业的兴起,各领域的表现还是不错的。美元加息对产业的影响不是短期的,而是一个长周期的影响链条;短期中可能是资金的成本提升一点,总体影响不会太大。中长期如果加息两次、三次甚至更多,这种影响将是不容忽视的,需要做好提前的分析和预判。

Fed rate hike rujierzhi, the market reaction is relatively stable. First, There are both advantages and disadvantages. from the industrial point of view, mixed. From the second half of last year to 1 this year, the fourth quarter of February figures, the better the domestic industry trend stable, both the PPI trend, profitability, capacity development, transformation and upgrading of traditional industries, and strategic emerging industries and the development of the industry, the rise of new technologies, new formats, new models, new industries in various fields, the performance is good. The impact of the dollar interest rate on the industry is not a short-term effect, but a long chain cycle; short term funds may be a cost increase, the overall effect is not too large. In the long term if the interest rate two times, three times or more, this effect will not be ignored and need to make analysis and pre judgment.

  第二,应当关注美联储加息以后其他的经济体的反应,他们是否跟进。如果是其他经济体跟进,可能造成全球流动性充裕的状态发生改变,在这种情况下就要考虑到应对的方案。

second, should pay attention to the Fed rate hike after the rest of the economy’s response, whether they follow up. If other economies follow, could cause global liquidity ample state change, we must take into account the plan in this case.

  第三,美元加息对产业的影响有三个方面。一是降低企业进口原材料价格,因为加息以后大宗商品的价格会下降,尤其是有色金属、化工等领域原材料成本的下降很明显,有助于降低企业成本和改善企业效益。二是对外资企业经营效益产生影响。无论农业、制造业还是服务业,加息以后相当于美元收益上升了。三是对利用外资产生影响。这几年中国制造业利用外资的比例在降低,增长幅度在收窄。美元加息导致美元收益上升后,利用外资有可能受到影响。

< p >第三産業に対して、ドル引き上げの影響の3つの方面。一つは企業の輸入原材料価格を下げるので、金利引き上げ後のバルク商品の価格が下がって、特に非鉄金属、化学工業などの分野で原材料コストの低下は明らかに役立つとする企業のコストと改善企業収益。2は外資企業に対して経営収益に影響を与える。いくら農業、製造業やサービス業、金利相当のドルに上昇した後に。三は、外資利用の影響。この数年に中国の製造業の外資利用の割合は低下、増加幅は縮小。ドル、ドルの収益金利の上昇の後、外資利用の影響を受ける可能性がある。< / p >

  在这种情况下,要做好应对工作。一是积极推动更高水平、更宽领域的开放。制造业要进一步扩大开放,并且服务业也要加大开放力度,要营造公平的竞争环境,打造高水平、宽领域、深层次对外开放格局,提高利用外资的质量和水平。二是正确处理好资本流动问题。有效处理企业短期资本流动管控和企业“走出去”合理需要的关系。满足企业正常外汇需求,积极推进“一带一路”,推进产业的走出去,开展国际产能合作,支持国内企业到国外购买优质资产进行全球产业布局,推动产业迈向中高端。

  中国宏观经济研究院能源经济研究所副所长高世宪:

< p <被害」中国のマクロ経済研究院エネルギー経済研究所副所長高世宪:< /時< / p >

  过去3个月国际原油价格处于相对平稳阶段,但是最近半个月左右的时间,影响油价平稳的因素陆续出现。

over the past 3 months, the international crude oil prices in a relatively stable stage, but the recent half a month or so, factors affecting oil prices continue steady.

  一是石油减产协议或有变化。去年11月欧佩克国家和非欧佩克国家达成石油减产协议,目前达成协议的相关环境发生变化,协议执行力度不够,目标可能难以实现。

is a petroleum production agreement or change. In November last year, OPEC and non OPEC oil production reached an agreement, the agreement of the relevant environmental changes, the execution of the agreement is not enough, may be difficult to achieve the goal.

  二是美国石油库存发生变化。上周美国发布消息称,美国原油库存在连续九周增加后,出现意外减少。

two is the U.S. oil inventories change. Last week, the United States announced that U.S. crude oil inventories increased after nine weeks in a row, appeared to reduce accidents.

  三是美元加息将使大宗商品价格承压,助推原油价格下降。

three is the dollar interest rate will make the commodity price pressure, boost the decline in crude oil prices.

  总体看,当前原油价格处于走高阶段,从去年9月份美联储加息以来,WTI油价从13美元升到现在的49美元,布伦特油价从46美元升到52美元。同时,美元加息、原油库存增加、石油减产协议执行力不够等因素也会削弱油价上涨基础。总体判断,在国际原油市场供求基本面博弈中,推动国际原油价格上升的因素略占上风,国际原油价格或将略有上升。

overall, the current price of crude oil in the higher stage, from September last year, the Fed rate hike since the WTI oil price rise from $13 to $49 now, Brent oil prices rise from $46 to $52. At the same time, the dollar interest rate, crude oil inventories increased, the execution of the oil production agreement is not enough and other factors will weaken the foundation of rising oil prices. Overall judgment, in the supply and demand of international crude oil market fundamentals of the game, driving factors of international crude oil prices rose slightly prevail, the international crude oil prices will rise slightly.

  中国宏观经济研究院综合运输研究所所长汪鸣:

Director of the Institute of comprehensive transportation

China Macro Economic Research Institute Wang Ming:

  美元加息对运输的影响是间接的。但是,由于近年来运输相关指标在我国宏观经济中具有一定的先导性,所以近半年来运输相关指标受美元加息影响也处于不断调整中,具体反映在以下几个方面:一是国际远洋运输需求转旺。尽管不是美元加息的直接影响,但是市场预期和环境变化相结合,产生了先导性影响,例如波罗的海指数已经连涨三天,稳在1100点以上。二是有利于造船行业。美元升值对以美元计价的造船合同是利好因素。从我们的调研情况看,由于江苏南通地区造船行业在转型,传统落后船型价格上不去,而美元升值却带来了好处。三是油价在相对较长的时间处于低位。公共运输中70%的成本是燃油,由于公共运输成本传导较快,运输企业成本降低可以减少综合物流成本并很快传导到经济基本面上。四是增加交通领域对外投资难度。近几年我国对“一带一路”沿线投资较多,由于自有资金数量有限,主要是借助银行贷款,美元加息将提高融资成本并加大还款压力。

dollar interest rate is an indirect effect on the transport of. However, due to the transport related indicators has a pilot in China’s macro economy, so nearly half a year to the related index of transportation by the impact of interest rate is adjusted dollars, which are reflected in the following aspects: one is the international ocean transportation demand. Although not directly affect the dollar interest rate hike, but market expectations and environmental changes combined have leading effect, such as the Baltic index has been rising for three days, steady at more than 1100 points. Two is conducive to the shipbuilding industry. The dollar for dollar denominated shipbuilding contract is a positive factor. From our research, the Jiangsu area of Nantong shipbuilding industry in transition, the traditional price ship does not go on, and the dollar has brought benefits. The three is in the low oil prices in a relatively long time. Public transport in 70% is the cost of fuel, because public transportation cost rapid transport enterprises to reduce the cost of transmission, can reduce logistics cost and quickly transfer to economic fundamentals. The four is to increase traffic in the area of foreign investment difficulty. In recent years, our country of “The Belt and Road along with more investment funds, due to a limited number, mainly through bank loans, the dollar interest rate will increase the financing costs and increase repayment pressure.

  中国宏观经济研究院经济体制与管理研究所副所长李振京:

The economic management system and Research on

Chinese Macroeconomic Research Institute deputy director Li Zhenjing:

  美联储加息对市场的影响不是那么大,市场反应比较平淡。虽然美元指数有一点降,但这种情况不能改变美元指数上升的趋势,不能排除会出现连续加息的可能性。我们要注意一旦形成加息周期的话,各个方面都会有影响。应重视加息对证券市场、资本流动性、股市、房市等的影响,探讨汇率的灵活性。

< p > FRB金利市場への影響はそんなに大きくて、市場の反応が平板。ドル指数は少し下がるが、この状況は変わらないドル指数の上昇傾向は排除できないが、連続利上げの可能性。私たちは注意の形成の利上げサイクルと、各方面にも影響があります。金利引き上げは証券市場は重視し、資本の流動性、株式市場、不動産市場などの影響で、為替レートの柔軟性を検討する。< / p >

Related posts

Leave a Comment